California Autos Examiner

Monday, January 26, 2009

NADA Economist: 12.7 Million Light Vehicles in 2009

Is National Automobile Dealers Association's Chief Economist being a bit rosy in his prediction that 2009 will see 12.7 million light vehicles sold in the United States? I think so. His contention is that government efforts to improve the availability of credit will begin to gain traction and improve sales numbers. It's my belief that improved credit availability, while important, won't refloat a sinking ship. Job losses have been heavy and are picking up steam as of late. These dramatic events are making buyers hyper aware that they are in uncharted and dangerous waters. With those kind of bad vibes floating around, I would wager that even those consumers who qualify for auto loans will be having second thoughts. Let's also factor in a dramatic increase in the number of auto dealers closing shop. I have read that up to 2,500 dealers may close in 2009, that is also going to affect sales volume.

I simply cannot accept the numbers being presented by NADA. My own prediction is that we could actually see auto sales slip precipitously close to 10 million or slightly less. I'd certainly love to be proven wrong on this one!


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